I agree with every line that you have written but that’s not my point. If Gibbs had dropped that catch in the semi final, then it would have been an absolute what if moment. Even otherwise this could have been a what if moment but I have a problem when this is hyped up based on the semi final’s result which should ideally be an independent event – If you have to give weightage to performance in the preliminary stages of the world cup, then SA should have got a reservation for their clean slate in the league stages of the 1996 world cup.
Pakistan won the WC in 1992 but they only qualified for the semi finals by a whisker and that too with extraordinary help from weather gods. But that’s not what made them win the WC as much as that gem from Inzamam or that deadly spell by Wasim. You can comfortably ignore Wasim or Inzamam and argue that Pakistan won it purely because of luck – if the game against Eng wasn’t rained off, they would have lost because of which they wouldn’t have qualified for the semi finals and therefore that is the most critical factor – the butterfly effect!. In any event with multiple causes we can take our biases for the causes and go to any limits to justify them...
When Kapil Dev took that catch, we could have sensed that it could be “that” catch. I think the SA rain rule example is not in sync here. When Azhar won that toss and elected to field, most of us immediately felt it was not wise – why bat under pressure in a critical match, might as well set a target and defend. (Also I wouldn’t really call it a what if moment anyways!). When Steve Waugh handled the ball, I was watching the match live in the stadium from “D” Stand and trust me everyone in the stadium sensed that this was a break that could turn the match. On all these occasions our hunch that this could be a crucial moment is right only in retrospect and could have so easily gone wrong – I am completely in agreement with you on all this.
Now thanks for that Robin Jackman’s commentary* – That’s exactly my point. That Razzaq drop could have proven to be insignificant if Sachin had got out the next ball. But would he have said something like “oh boy. How crucial that dropped catch is going to be in deciding who’ll be the winner of this WC” in this case? I don’t think so. I can only imagine him saying something like “Oh boy, Has Gibbs given Australia another chance to get out of the jail and make it to the semi final”.
Unlike other examples that you have given, with the Gibbs' dropped catch, one could have only sensed that this is not curtains for Australia yet in this WC and nothing more. C’mon don’t tell me one can foresee a tie in the semi final which would make the result of this match absolutely critical and therefore this drop could prove to be catastrophic to SA’s chances of reaching the finals!
*If I remember right, the exact comment on that Razzaq dropped chance was "he might live to rue that"
Showing posts with label what if. Show all posts
Showing posts with label what if. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
How critical was that Steve Waugh's dropped catch?
In my response to Ramki’s what if’s in cricket, Ramki made the following comment: “Both of us missed gibbs dropping steve waugh...surely that is a what if moment?"
Surely that is a what if moment? You gotta be kidding… If that is a “what if” moment then almost half of the dropped catches in the history of cricket is a “what if” moment. The biggest problem with that incident is that it got its hype not so much for its criticality in that match but rather a retrospective romanticisation of it after the semi final ended in a tie. Admittedly it was a great innings under pressure and if Gibbs had caught it, it could have been curtains for Australia in that world cup. But it could have been the same against India too. What if Sachin had played a blinder in that chase and took the game away from Aussies! The equation for Australia was simple – win every match in the super six stage to reach the semi final and that’s what they did.
Now once the semi final spots were known, Steve Waugh’s innings was sunk – it had no more value (well, almost!). In an Australia vs South Africa semi final in a world cup how many of us would put our money on a tie for a result? It could so easily have been another of the South African humiliation by Australia or yet another Zulu show which could have taken the game away from Australia (and he almost did!) Now what happened on this occasion was not only that a highly improbable event happened but that combined with some amazingly complicated rules of the tournament ensured that Australia got through to the finals. Let us not forget the fact that SA didn’t lose the semi-final!
Because Steve Waugh’s innings helped Australia win the previous match against SA in the super six stage which helped them get through to the finals as they had a superior head to head record (as per the tournament rules!) that it got hyped even further. And only in retrospect did that Gibbs’ dropped chance seem to be so expensive! “You just dropped the WC mate”* became such a legendary story but that would have looked so foolish if Australia had lost the semi final! This is almost like the butterfly effect in Chaos Theory but surprisingly a lot of people bought into that story…
*Apparently Steve Waugh had made a similar comment “you just dropped the test match mate” to Sourav Ganguly in that famous Kolkata test in 2001 when he dropped Steve Waugh at leg slip early in his innings and we all know the result of that match!
Surely that is a what if moment? You gotta be kidding… If that is a “what if” moment then almost half of the dropped catches in the history of cricket is a “what if” moment. The biggest problem with that incident is that it got its hype not so much for its criticality in that match but rather a retrospective romanticisation of it after the semi final ended in a tie. Admittedly it was a great innings under pressure and if Gibbs had caught it, it could have been curtains for Australia in that world cup. But it could have been the same against India too. What if Sachin had played a blinder in that chase and took the game away from Aussies! The equation for Australia was simple – win every match in the super six stage to reach the semi final and that’s what they did.
Now once the semi final spots were known, Steve Waugh’s innings was sunk – it had no more value (well, almost!). In an Australia vs South Africa semi final in a world cup how many of us would put our money on a tie for a result? It could so easily have been another of the South African humiliation by Australia or yet another Zulu show which could have taken the game away from Australia (and he almost did!) Now what happened on this occasion was not only that a highly improbable event happened but that combined with some amazingly complicated rules of the tournament ensured that Australia got through to the finals. Let us not forget the fact that SA didn’t lose the semi-final!
Because Steve Waugh’s innings helped Australia win the previous match against SA in the super six stage which helped them get through to the finals as they had a superior head to head record (as per the tournament rules!) that it got hyped even further. And only in retrospect did that Gibbs’ dropped chance seem to be so expensive! “You just dropped the WC mate”* became such a legendary story but that would have looked so foolish if Australia had lost the semi final! This is almost like the butterfly effect in Chaos Theory but surprisingly a lot of people bought into that story…
*Apparently Steve Waugh had made a similar comment “you just dropped the test match mate” to Sourav Ganguly in that famous Kolkata test in 2001 when he dropped Steve Waugh at leg slip early in his innings and we all know the result of that match!
Friday, October 23, 2009
What if....my version
Like I had the first mover advantage in the previous topic, you have it this time which makes my task relatively tougher. You have picked the cream of our cricket watching career already – but really that’s a silly excuse isn’t it?
This is mine:
1.What if Indo-Pak partition didn’t happen?
2.What if Shane Warne was born in India?
3.What if Sachin had connected that doosra from Saqlain cleanly?
4.What if BC Cooray didn’t come in the way of that Richardson’s thunderbolt of a sweep?
5.What if India had been knocked out in the first round of T20 World Cup in SA?
6.What if Healy had caught that Lara’s outside edge in Bridgetown?
7.What if that scoop of Kasprowicz was dropped by Geraint Jones?
8.What if Walsh wasn’t such a wonderful sportsman (remember he didn’t mankad Saleem Jaffar in the 1987 WC which cost them a semi-final berth)
9.What if Barry Richards had a long career (and did a Hussey)? – so that we would have known the real greatness of the man!
10.What if Steve Bucknor didn’t turn both deaf and blind at once in Sydney?
These are surely not my top 10 what if’s, but these are the 10 most spontaneous ones as of now…
This is mine:
1.What if Indo-Pak partition didn’t happen?
2.What if Shane Warne was born in India?
3.What if Sachin had connected that doosra from Saqlain cleanly?
4.What if BC Cooray didn’t come in the way of that Richardson’s thunderbolt of a sweep?
5.What if India had been knocked out in the first round of T20 World Cup in SA?
6.What if Healy had caught that Lara’s outside edge in Bridgetown?
7.What if that scoop of Kasprowicz was dropped by Geraint Jones?
8.What if Walsh wasn’t such a wonderful sportsman (remember he didn’t mankad Saleem Jaffar in the 1987 WC which cost them a semi-final berth)
9.What if Barry Richards had a long career (and did a Hussey)? – so that we would have known the real greatness of the man!
10.What if Steve Bucknor didn’t turn both deaf and blind at once in Sydney?
These are surely not my top 10 what if’s, but these are the 10 most spontaneous ones as of now…
What if..........
“The greatest of all mysteries is What if”, writes Forsyth in his book The Odessa File.
As the book is about the Holocaust, that’s a big what if. This comes in the aftermath of the Kennedy assassination. What if Kennedy had gone in the car with the roof closed?
How would have that changed the history of the world? What if the Nazis had won the second world war? These are questions for which you would never know the answers unless, you believe in parallel universes where u have a different version of the events going on.
So what has that got to do with cricket? Well, here are my ten biggest What ifs in cricket.
1. What if Viv Richards hadn’t played “that shot” or connected cleanly?
2. What if Donald had run instantly in the last over?
3. What if rain hadn’t intervened during the SA-England semi final WC 92?
4. What if Ravi Shastri had refused to take the single of the fourth ball of the final over leaving him two balls to get two runs at Chennai?
5. What if Gatting had come down the track and connected the slow looping leg break on the full?
6. What if Azhar had opted to bat in the semi final of WC 96?
7. What if Mcgrath hadn’t stepped on the ball before Edgbaston ’05?
8. What if Steve Waugh had opted to bat in the second innings of Calcutta Test?
9. What if Kapil Dev had chosen someone else other than Chetan Sharma to bowl the last over?
10. What if Mike Gatting had not played the reverse sweep?
So what are your what ifs?????
As the book is about the Holocaust, that’s a big what if. This comes in the aftermath of the Kennedy assassination. What if Kennedy had gone in the car with the roof closed?
How would have that changed the history of the world? What if the Nazis had won the second world war? These are questions for which you would never know the answers unless, you believe in parallel universes where u have a different version of the events going on.
So what has that got to do with cricket? Well, here are my ten biggest What ifs in cricket.
1. What if Viv Richards hadn’t played “that shot” or connected cleanly?
2. What if Donald had run instantly in the last over?
3. What if rain hadn’t intervened during the SA-England semi final WC 92?
4. What if Ravi Shastri had refused to take the single of the fourth ball of the final over leaving him two balls to get two runs at Chennai?
5. What if Gatting had come down the track and connected the slow looping leg break on the full?
6. What if Azhar had opted to bat in the semi final of WC 96?
7. What if Mcgrath hadn’t stepped on the ball before Edgbaston ’05?
8. What if Steve Waugh had opted to bat in the second innings of Calcutta Test?
9. What if Kapil Dev had chosen someone else other than Chetan Sharma to bowl the last over?
10. What if Mike Gatting had not played the reverse sweep?
So what are your what ifs?????
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