How critical was that Steve Waugh's dropped catch?

In my response to Ramki’s what if’s in cricket, Ramki made the following comment: “Both of us missed gibbs dropping steve waugh...surely that is a what if moment?"

Surely that is a what if moment? You gotta be kidding… If that is a “what if” moment then almost half of the dropped catches in the history of cricket is a “what if” moment. The biggest problem with that incident is that it got its hype not so much for its criticality in that match but rather a retrospective romanticisation of it after the semi final ended in a tie. Admittedly it was a great innings under pressure and if Gibbs had caught it, it could have been curtains for Australia in that world cup. But it could have been the same against India too. What if Sachin had played a blinder in that chase and took the game away from Aussies! The equation for Australia was simple – win every match in the super six stage to reach the semi final and that’s what they did.

Now once the semi final spots were known, Steve Waugh’s innings was sunk – it had no more value (well, almost!). In an Australia vs South Africa semi final in a world cup how many of us would put our money on a tie for a result? It could so easily have been another of the South African humiliation by Australia or yet another Zulu show which could have taken the game away from Australia (and he almost did!) Now what happened on this occasion was not only that a highly improbable event happened but that combined with some amazingly complicated rules of the tournament ensured that Australia got through to the finals. Let us not forget the fact that SA didn’t lose the semi-final!

Because Steve Waugh’s innings helped Australia win the previous match against SA in the super six stage which helped them get through to the finals as they had a superior head to head record (as per the tournament rules!) that it got hyped even further. And only in retrospect did that Gibbs’ dropped chance seem to be so expensive! “You just dropped the WC mate”* became such a legendary story but that would have looked so foolish if Australia had lost the semi final! This is almost like the butterfly effect in Chaos Theory but surprisingly a lot of people bought into that story…

*Apparently Steve Waugh had made a similar comment “you just dropped the test match mate” to Sourav Ganguly in that famous Kolkata test in 2001 when he dropped Steve Waugh at leg slip early in his innings and we all know the result of that match!