I agree with every line that you have written but that’s not my point. If Gibbs had dropped that catch in the semi final, then it would have been an absolute what if moment. Even otherwise this could have been a what if moment but I have a problem when this is hyped up based on the semi final’s result which should ideally be an independent event – If you have to give weightage to performance in the preliminary stages of the world cup, then SA should have got a reservation for their clean slate in the league stages of the 1996 world cup.
Pakistan won the WC in 1992 but they only qualified for the semi finals by a whisker and that too with extraordinary help from weather gods. But that’s not what made them win the WC as much as that gem from Inzamam or that deadly spell by Wasim. You can comfortably ignore Wasim or Inzamam and argue that Pakistan won it purely because of luck – if the game against Eng wasn’t rained off, they would have lost because of which they wouldn’t have qualified for the semi finals and therefore that is the most critical factor – the butterfly effect!. In any event with multiple causes we can take our biases for the causes and go to any limits to justify them...
When Kapil Dev took that catch, we could have sensed that it could be “that” catch. I think the SA rain rule example is not in sync here. When Azhar won that toss and elected to field, most of us immediately felt it was not wise – why bat under pressure in a critical match, might as well set a target and defend. (Also I wouldn’t really call it a what if moment anyways!). When Steve Waugh handled the ball, I was watching the match live in the stadium from “D” Stand and trust me everyone in the stadium sensed that this was a break that could turn the match. On all these occasions our hunch that this could be a crucial moment is right only in retrospect and could have so easily gone wrong – I am completely in agreement with you on all this.
Now thanks for that Robin Jackman’s commentary* – That’s exactly my point. That Razzaq drop could have proven to be insignificant if Sachin had got out the next ball. But would he have said something like “oh boy. How crucial that dropped catch is going to be in deciding who’ll be the winner of this WC” in this case? I don’t think so. I can only imagine him saying something like “Oh boy, Has Gibbs given Australia another chance to get out of the jail and make it to the semi final”.
Unlike other examples that you have given, with the Gibbs' dropped catch, one could have only sensed that this is not curtains for Australia yet in this WC and nothing more. C’mon don’t tell me one can foresee a tie in the semi final which would make the result of this match absolutely critical and therefore this drop could prove to be catastrophic to SA’s chances of reaching the finals!
*If I remember right, the exact comment on that Razzaq dropped chance was "he might live to rue that"
Showing posts with label Dropped catch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dropped catch. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
How crucial???
Any mistake only becomes big in retrospect and not at the moment. When Kapil caught Viv Richards at Lord's surely nobody would have thought India had the upper hand and will go on to win the world cup. The most realistic thought would have been, now the match would go beyond 40 overs possibly. But WI lost the match and then in retrospect that catch became crucial. Surely Viv neednt have played that shot....He had all day to score a century!!!
Or take the case of the semi finals in World Cup 92-the dubious rain rule which robbed SA from going to the final, one of the culprits for 22runs - 1 ball was SA themselves by bowling only 45 overs in the stipulated time.
When Azhar won the toss and decided to field in 96 semi final, and India got two wickets in the first over, nobody was complaining, but when Sachin got out, and the wicket started turning square everybody started complaining that Azhar should have batted. Azhar had history(he had won the previous two finals batting first with Kumble being deadly) and the chance to change things but he didnt. If Gibbs hadnt dropped the catch there probably wouldnt have been an Aus-SA semifinal in the first case, because Steve was the only one who was holding the innings.
If Gibbs hadnt dropped the catch we wouldnt have had a heartstopping semi final, so we should be thanking him for that!!!
Lets take another Steve Waugh What if moment in the same series you quoted. Steve Waugh handling the ball in Chennai, Aus were 347/3 with Hayden and Waugh batting beautifully...take that into the context of the series... For all that Hesh has said about the Kolkata test match, Waugh asking India to follow on is also a What if moment!!!
Dean Jones said that he had many oppurtunities to take two runs but took only one because he wanted to conserve energy during the chennai test 86... Nobody complained at that time, nobody would do after the match either, but Jones himself feels if he had converted just one oppurtunity it would have been enough.
I can quote you a comment Robin Jackman said when Razzaq dropped Tendulkar on 32 in 2003 world cup... "How crucial is this gonna be in deciding the fate of this match?"
We all know how crucial that was!!
Or take the case of the semi finals in World Cup 92-the dubious rain rule which robbed SA from going to the final, one of the culprits for 22runs - 1 ball was SA themselves by bowling only 45 overs in the stipulated time.
When Azhar won the toss and decided to field in 96 semi final, and India got two wickets in the first over, nobody was complaining, but when Sachin got out, and the wicket started turning square everybody started complaining that Azhar should have batted. Azhar had history(he had won the previous two finals batting first with Kumble being deadly) and the chance to change things but he didnt. If Gibbs hadnt dropped the catch there probably wouldnt have been an Aus-SA semifinal in the first case, because Steve was the only one who was holding the innings.
If Gibbs hadnt dropped the catch we wouldnt have had a heartstopping semi final, so we should be thanking him for that!!!
Lets take another Steve Waugh What if moment in the same series you quoted. Steve Waugh handling the ball in Chennai, Aus were 347/3 with Hayden and Waugh batting beautifully...take that into the context of the series... For all that Hesh has said about the Kolkata test match, Waugh asking India to follow on is also a What if moment!!!
Dean Jones said that he had many oppurtunities to take two runs but took only one because he wanted to conserve energy during the chennai test 86... Nobody complained at that time, nobody would do after the match either, but Jones himself feels if he had converted just one oppurtunity it would have been enough.
I can quote you a comment Robin Jackman said when Razzaq dropped Tendulkar on 32 in 2003 world cup... "How crucial is this gonna be in deciding the fate of this match?"
We all know how crucial that was!!
How critical was that Steve Waugh's dropped catch?
In my response to Ramki’s what if’s in cricket, Ramki made the following comment: “Both of us missed gibbs dropping steve waugh...surely that is a what if moment?"
Surely that is a what if moment? You gotta be kidding… If that is a “what if” moment then almost half of the dropped catches in the history of cricket is a “what if” moment. The biggest problem with that incident is that it got its hype not so much for its criticality in that match but rather a retrospective romanticisation of it after the semi final ended in a tie. Admittedly it was a great innings under pressure and if Gibbs had caught it, it could have been curtains for Australia in that world cup. But it could have been the same against India too. What if Sachin had played a blinder in that chase and took the game away from Aussies! The equation for Australia was simple – win every match in the super six stage to reach the semi final and that’s what they did.
Now once the semi final spots were known, Steve Waugh’s innings was sunk – it had no more value (well, almost!). In an Australia vs South Africa semi final in a world cup how many of us would put our money on a tie for a result? It could so easily have been another of the South African humiliation by Australia or yet another Zulu show which could have taken the game away from Australia (and he almost did!) Now what happened on this occasion was not only that a highly improbable event happened but that combined with some amazingly complicated rules of the tournament ensured that Australia got through to the finals. Let us not forget the fact that SA didn’t lose the semi-final!
Because Steve Waugh’s innings helped Australia win the previous match against SA in the super six stage which helped them get through to the finals as they had a superior head to head record (as per the tournament rules!) that it got hyped even further. And only in retrospect did that Gibbs’ dropped chance seem to be so expensive! “You just dropped the WC mate”* became such a legendary story but that would have looked so foolish if Australia had lost the semi final! This is almost like the butterfly effect in Chaos Theory but surprisingly a lot of people bought into that story…
*Apparently Steve Waugh had made a similar comment “you just dropped the test match mate” to Sourav Ganguly in that famous Kolkata test in 2001 when he dropped Steve Waugh at leg slip early in his innings and we all know the result of that match!
Surely that is a what if moment? You gotta be kidding… If that is a “what if” moment then almost half of the dropped catches in the history of cricket is a “what if” moment. The biggest problem with that incident is that it got its hype not so much for its criticality in that match but rather a retrospective romanticisation of it after the semi final ended in a tie. Admittedly it was a great innings under pressure and if Gibbs had caught it, it could have been curtains for Australia in that world cup. But it could have been the same against India too. What if Sachin had played a blinder in that chase and took the game away from Aussies! The equation for Australia was simple – win every match in the super six stage to reach the semi final and that’s what they did.
Now once the semi final spots were known, Steve Waugh’s innings was sunk – it had no more value (well, almost!). In an Australia vs South Africa semi final in a world cup how many of us would put our money on a tie for a result? It could so easily have been another of the South African humiliation by Australia or yet another Zulu show which could have taken the game away from Australia (and he almost did!) Now what happened on this occasion was not only that a highly improbable event happened but that combined with some amazingly complicated rules of the tournament ensured that Australia got through to the finals. Let us not forget the fact that SA didn’t lose the semi-final!
Because Steve Waugh’s innings helped Australia win the previous match against SA in the super six stage which helped them get through to the finals as they had a superior head to head record (as per the tournament rules!) that it got hyped even further. And only in retrospect did that Gibbs’ dropped chance seem to be so expensive! “You just dropped the WC mate”* became such a legendary story but that would have looked so foolish if Australia had lost the semi final! This is almost like the butterfly effect in Chaos Theory but surprisingly a lot of people bought into that story…
*Apparently Steve Waugh had made a similar comment “you just dropped the test match mate” to Sourav Ganguly in that famous Kolkata test in 2001 when he dropped Steve Waugh at leg slip early in his innings and we all know the result of that match!
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