Missing the point...

I agree with every line that you have written but that’s not my point. If Gibbs had dropped that catch in the semi final, then it would have been an absolute what if moment. Even otherwise this could have been a what if moment but I have a problem when this is hyped up based on the semi final’s result which should ideally be an independent event – If you have to give weightage to performance in the preliminary stages of the world cup, then SA should have got a reservation for their clean slate in the league stages of the 1996 world cup.

Pakistan won the WC in 1992 but they only qualified for the semi finals by a whisker and that too with extraordinary help from weather gods. But that’s not what made them win the WC as much as that gem from Inzamam or that deadly spell by Wasim. You can comfortably ignore Wasim or Inzamam and argue that Pakistan won it purely because of luck – if the game against Eng wasn’t rained off, they would have lost because of which they wouldn’t have qualified for the semi finals and therefore that is the most critical factor – the butterfly effect!. In any event with multiple causes we can take our biases for the causes and go to any limits to justify them...

When Kapil Dev took that catch, we could have sensed that it could be “that” catch. I think the SA rain rule example is not in sync here. When Azhar won that toss and elected to field, most of us immediately felt it was not wise – why bat under pressure in a critical match, might as well set a target and defend. (Also I wouldn’t really call it a what if moment anyways!). When Steve Waugh handled the ball, I was watching the match live in the stadium from “D” Stand and trust me everyone in the stadium sensed that this was a break that could turn the match. On all these occasions our hunch that this could be a crucial moment is right only in retrospect and could have so easily gone wrong – I am completely in agreement with you on all this.

Now thanks for that Robin Jackman’s commentary* – That’s exactly my point. That Razzaq drop could have proven to be insignificant if Sachin had got out the next ball. But would he have said something like “oh boy. How crucial that dropped catch is going to be in deciding who’ll be the winner of this WC” in this case? I don’t think so. I can only imagine him saying something like “Oh boy, Has Gibbs given Australia another chance to get out of the jail and make it to the semi final”.

Unlike other examples that you have given, with the Gibbs' dropped catch, one could have only sensed that this is not curtains for Australia yet in this WC and nothing more. C’mon don’t tell me one can foresee a tie in the semi final which would make the result of this match absolutely critical and therefore this drop could prove to be catastrophic to SA’s chances of reaching the finals!

*If I remember right, the exact comment on that Razzaq dropped chance was "he might live to rue that"